Chhimi Dema

This year, the country in the monsoon is likely to experience ‘slightly above normal’ rainfall, according to the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM).

The maximum and minimum temperature is likely to be ‘slightly above normal’.

The ‘normal’ outlook is being determined by the average temperature or rainfall (maximum and minimum) for the summer season from 1996 to 2021.

The 10 percent change in the rainfall and temperature determines the slightly below or above seasonal outlook of the year.

The outlook was shared during the 8th National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF-8) in Punakha on May 27 to the officials from climate-sensitive sectors, corporations, and non-government organisations.

During the NCOF-8, NCHM held a stakeholder consultation meeting on the Hydro-Met policy, GCF project awareness and engagement of stakeholders and communities, and introduced the agricultural drought watch platform.

Officials from NCHM said that the forecast was prepared with input from global and regional prediction centres and national climate data.

“The outlook is based on consensus outlook of World Meteorological Organisation’s Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts, the South-Asian Climate Outlook Forum, and other international sources,” they said.

The outlook is expected to help the country prepare for disasters and emergencies.

Press release from NCHM states that the monsoon outlook has to be used and interpreted along with the extended, medium, daily weather forecasts, and other advisories released by the centre.

“The forum informs the relevant stakeholders about the on-set of the monsoon and its high or low rainfall and temperature occurrences,” officials said.

The South-Asian Climate Forum Outlook (SASCOF) falls under the World Meteorology Organisation’s Global Framework for Climate Services.

SASCOF brings together international and regional experts such as the Indian Meteorological Department and UK Met Office to develop the seasonal climatic information. It focuses on the region’s likely rainfall and temperature, and decides on what the season will be like based on scientific findings and experts’ views.

After the South-Asian Climate Outlook Forum, countries conduct a national climate outlook forum (NCOF).

Monsoon in Bhutan starts from June to September.