As we move deeper into the monsoon season, the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) has issued a cautionary forecast, predicting slightly above-normal rainfall with the potential for extreme weather events. This isn’t a warning to be taken lightly.
Earlier this year, during the 10th National Climate Outlook Forum, the NCHM highlighted the possibility of a challenging summer, with expectations of increased rainfall and higher temperatures driven by ongoing climate patterns. Now, as the monsoon progresses, the reality of those predictions is becoming increasingly evident.
Recent months have already brought with them a series of extreme weather events across the country. Flash floods have occurred in places such as Begana, Dechenphu, and Gidakom in Thimphu; Lamay Goenba in Bumthang; Isuna in Paro; and Gantey in Wangdue. These incidents are stark reminders of Bhutan’s vulnerability to the forces of nature, exacerbated by our unique geographical and climatic conditions.
Bhutan’s geologically young and fragile mountain ecosystem, combined with settlements nestled in river valleys, places the country at significant risk. Landslides, flash floods, and the ever-looming threat of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) are not hypothetical concerns—they are real dangers that can strike with devastating consequences.
The NCHM has identified several challenges in its ability to provide accurate and timely weather forecasting, which further complicates our preparedness efforts. The lack of synoptic-standard meteorological stations, frequent interruptions at existing weather stations, the absence of global atmospheric watch stations, and limited capability for probability forecasting are significant hurdles. Weak internet connectivity at these critical locations further hinders the efficient dissemination of crucial weather information.
Given these vulnerabilities, the focus must be on preparedness—we cannot afford complacency. The unpredictability of extreme weather events demands that we remain vigilant and proactive. Communities in high-risk areas must be educated and equipped to respond swiftly in the event of sudden floods or landslides. Early warning systems, where functional, need to be tested and maintained regularly. Where they are lacking, efforts must be made to establish them with urgency.
Local governments and disaster management authorities should conduct regular drills and community engagement programmes to ensure that residents are not only aware of the risks but also understand how to act when disaster strikes. Infrastructure in vulnerable areas needs to be assessed and, where possible, reinforced to withstand the increased pressures that extreme weather can bring.
While the NCHM and the relevant agencies continue to work on improving their forecasting capabilities and addressing the technical challenges they face, we, as a nation, must recognise that preparedness is our strongest line of defence.
In the face of nature’s unpredictability, our resilience will be measured by our preparedness. The warnings have been given, the signs are clear.