• Why the world’s climate forum can’t afford to fail

Yangyel Lhaden

Each year, the world’s nations convene for the United Nations’ Conference of the Parties (COP) to tackle one of humanity’s greatest challenges—climate change. These meetings are the backbone of global efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions, limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and chart a path toward net-zero emissions. But as the climate crisis escalates, questions linger: Is COP delivering on its promises, or its failures dooming our collective future?

What really is COP?

COP is a high-level meeting where parties gather annually to review climate action and the implementation of commitments made under United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) related agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. COP facilitates negotiations on new climate agreements, sets global climate policies, enhances financial and technological support for developing countries, and monitors emissions reductions.

In addition to the UNFCCC COP, Bhutan is part of other key COP meetings, such as the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) COP and the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) COP. However, the UNFCCC COP is the most prominent and widely followed, as it directly addresses global climate change.

Origins of UNFCCC COP

The roots of COP trace back to the 1980s when scientific consensus emerged linking human activity to global warming. Alarm bells rang loudly after the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its First Assessment Report in 1988, warning of rising greenhouse gas emissions and their catastrophic effects.

The international response culminated in the adoption of the UNFCCC during the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, a landmark in environmental diplomacy. The treaty aimed to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations and encouraged global collaboration to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference” with the climate system.

The first COP meeting was held in Berlin in 1995, marking the start of annual summits to monitor and accelerate climate action.

COP achievements

COPs have achieved significant milestones, such as the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, which set binding emission reduction targets for developed countries, and the Paris Agreement in 2015, where countries committed to limiting global warming to well below two degrees Celsius, with efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Yet, progress is painstakingly slow. The consensus-driven nature of COP, requiring agreement from nearly 200 nations, often leads to diluted outcomes.

Developing countries, which contribute the least to global emissions but suffer the most, have repeatedly voiced frustration over unmet financial commitments. They frequently find the outcomes of COPs insufficient in addressing their needs for financial support. The loss and damage fund, intended to support vulnerable nations, remains inadequately funded.

Challenges of COP negotiations

COP negotiations can be overwhelming, as reaching consensus among parties is challenging. While COP sessions typically last two weeks, decisions often extend beyond the official closing time. For example, this year’s COP29 lasted an additional 35 hours and 30 minutes to finalise agreements.

COP meetings bring together thousands of delegates, civil society organisations, and activists, press, observers, among others, blending climate science, politics, and economics. The success of COP depends on balancing these diverse interests, which makes negotiations complex.

Despite these challenges, COP remains essential for advancing global climate action. However, many developing nations express disappointment at the slow pace of progress, particularly regarding financial support, action on loss and damage, and the unmet goals from past COPs.

Outcomes of COP29

Held in Baku, Azerbaijan, COP29 ended in disappointment for developing nations. While developing nations demanded USD 1.3 trillion annually in climate finance, they secured a commitment of only USD 300 billion by 2035, with a roadmap to scale up financing in the future.

The limited financial commitment comes as climate-induced disasters escalate globally, with developing nations struggling to recover from the rising frequency of floods, droughts, and cyclones. These events devastate economies and displace communities, contributing to the growing number of climate refugees, according to the World Economic Forum.

There is a pressing need for enhanced financial support to help these vulnerable regions rebuild and build resilience to the ongoing climate crisis.

Meanwhile, greenhouse gas levels are 40 percent higher than 20 years ago, despite annual COP meetings aimed at curbing global warming. As a result, global temperatures continue to rise, and the year 2024 is on track to be the warmest on record, following an extended period of exceptionally high monthly global mean temperatures, as reported by the World Meteorological Organisation.

Looking ahead to COP30

COP30 will be held in Belém, Brazil, in November 2025, with high expectations from developing nations for concrete actions on climate finance, loss and damage, and the goal to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Some primary objectives of COP include:

Greenhouse gas

COPs work to limit global warming by negotiating mechanisms to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane, and sulfur dioxide naturally regulate Earth’s temperature at 15°C, human activities since the Industrial Revolution have sharply increased their levels, primarily due to fossil fuel burning. Carbon dioxide, responsible for about 75 percent of global warming, remains in the atmosphere for thousands of years, contributing to a progressively warming planet.

1.5 Degree Celsius pathway

It is a target to limit global warming,  Since the Industrial Revolution, global surface temperatures have risen by about 1.2°C, with 1.5°C identified as the critical threshold beyond which climate change effects could become irreversible. At COP26 in 2021, governments prioritised limiting warming to 1.5°C, a stricter target than the 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement. Achieving this requires rapid decarbonisation across all sectors of the global economy. Many nations, companies, and organisations have pledged to transition to net-zero emissions in the coming years to align with this pathway.

Net-Zero

The focus on net-zero emissions at COP began gaining significant momentum after the Paris Agreement in 2015. The formal push for net-zero was accelerated at COP26 in 2021, where more than 130 countries, including major emitters like the U.S. and the EU, formally pledged to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 or 2060

Net-zero emissions is achieved when the amount of greenhouse gases released equals the amount removed from the atmosphere. This requires both decarbonisation, reducing emissions from fossil fuels, and carbon removal, capturing and storing carbon. To reach net-zero, decarbonisation must occur across all sectors, with carbon removal offsetting emissions from hard-to-decarbonise industries.

Loss and damage

One of the central objectives of COP is to address the impacts of climate change on vulnerable countries, focusing on compensating and supporting those most affected by extreme weather events and other climate-induced damages.