In the heart of the Himalayas, Bhutan, the kingdom that pioneered Gross National Happiness, faces an unprecedented challenge from climate-induced disasters. Yet within this challenge lies an opportunity to transform Bhutan’s approach to weather, water, climate, and early warning services.
The urgency is undeniable. In last August, a flash flood intensified by upstream landslides impacted 70 households in Thimphu. In 2023, a devastating flash flood claimed 23 lives and caused extensive damage to the Yungichhu hydropower project construction site. In 2021, severe rainfall impacted 2,500 acres of farmland across 18 dzongkhags, resulting in the damage of 2,400 metric tonnes of crops. The country’s vulnerability is clear: Bhutan hosts 700 glaciers and 567 glacial lakes, with 17 of these lakes posing medium to high risks of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). With half of the workforce in agriculture, primarily relying on rainfed dryland and wetland farming, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
The National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM), the World Bank, and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) celebrate ten years of partnership, which began when NCHM was a department under the erstwhile Ministry of Economic Affairs. Since its establishment as an autonomous agency in 2016, the NCHM has worked steadily to provide comprehensive weather, water, and climate services.
For instance, in 2018, the World Bank with financial support from GFDRR and the South Asia Water Initiative assisted NCHM in operationalising a highly advanced, state-of-the art platform for weather forecasting and dissemination that helped reduce the average preparation time for daily weather forecasts by half. In addition, NCHM enhanced aviation weather operation systems and installed a wind profiler and ceilometer at the Paro International Airport, improving the safety of flight operations. In 2023, NCHM, with financial and technical assistance from the World Bank, Climate Investment Funds (CIF), and GFDRR, formulated the National Hydromet Policy. It has paved the way for the recently approved US$40 million Climate and Disaster Resilience Development Policy Financing with a Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option, which aims to enhance the GLOF early warning services for the Punatsangchu and Chamkhar-Mangde basins.
However, significant challenges remain. The current observation network lacks reliable weather monitoring stations and relies heavily on manual data transmission, leading to gaps in weather data, less accurate forecasts, and difficulties in predicting extreme weather events. Automatic Weather Stations face frequent interruptions due to communication and network issues. Higher elevations are underrepresented in the precipitation network, and flood warning stations are limited to major rivers, leaving smaller tributaries unmonitored.
Working together, the Royal Government of Bhutan and the World Bank have developed a comprehensive ten-year roadmap to address these challenges. By 2034, NCHM aims to transform itself into an advanced hydromet service provider through targeted investments and capacity-building interventions.
The roadmap outlines concrete steps: enhancing the observation network through new upper air stations, weather radar, and synoptic stations; improving the forecasting capabilities with ensemble prediction systems and impact-based forecasting; and developing specialized services for agriculture and energy sectors. A new purpose-built campus will house administration, operations, technical labs, and education facilities, including weather observation and balloon launches.
Innovation sits at the heart of Bhutan’s plan. It will embrace Artificial Intelligence (AI), including Deep Learning and Machine Learning, to enhance the forecasting techniques. Rather than focusing on local-area modeling, NCHM will shift toward extending local observations and downscaling global and regional models through AI to provide highly localized and more accurate forecasts of extreme weather events.
The roadmap also emphasizes building local expertise. Professional training plans based on World Meteorological Organization requirements will ensure the NCHM staff meet international standards. NCHM will pursue ISO 9001:2015 certification for aviation services and implement a comprehensive Quality Management System.
Regional cooperation will continue to play a crucial role. The South Asia Hydromet Forum (SAHF) co-chaired by NCHM and convened by the World Bank has enhanced regional collaboration and coordination for hydromet and early warning services, fostering knowledge sharing and capacity building among meteorological and hydrological service providers in South Asia. Key achievements include the establishment of strategic partnerships, the launch of initiatives like the SAHF Data Exchange and Forecasters’ Forum, and the delivery of high-quality and timely forecasts through collaboration with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
This initiative represents more than just technological upgrade—it’s an investment in Bhutan’s future. Modern hydromet services will protect lives, secure livelihoods, and support the country’s economy and sustainable development goals.
Through the partnership between the Royal Government and the World Bank, Bhutan will strengthen its resilience to climate-induced disasters while continuing its tradition of environmental stewardship.
The Roadmap for Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan was jointly developed by the NCHM and the World Bank under the Strengthening Risk Information for Resilience in Bhutan project with financial support from the CIF and the GFDRR.
Contributed by Lyonpo Gem Tshering, Minister, Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources; Cécile Fruman, Acting Country Director for Bhutan and Director for South Asia Regional Integration, World Bank